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AFSL 250900 / ASX and USA mechanical investing system

Mechanical Investing for the Decade That Matters Most

A rules-based ASX and USA stock investing system for Stage 2 and Stage 3 investors: the years where timing, discipline, and capital protection matter most.

Jan 2016ASX real-money public portfolio open-book since inception
15 mintypical weekly process once learnt
Since 1994continuous SPA3 research and development
Watch the PBYP Series Explore SPA3 Investor

Before you start: you need a compatible broker, market data, suitable investing capital, and time to review signals and place any required orders. The ASX live portfolio's maximum historical drawdown was -22.70%; the US live portfolio's was -36.38%. Active investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. General information only. AFSL 250900.

Beyond Charts / SPA3 Investor
ASX stock / ATR breakout and trailing stop view
Glass box
Beyond Charts SPA3 Investor ASX chart showing ATR breakout and trailing-stop rules
ASX + USAStocks and ETFs
6-14typical positions
15mtypical weekly time
1. Enter when momentum is confirmed 2. Trail the trend while it holds 3. Exit to cash when rules fire
The risk window

There Is One Risk That No One Talks About Enough.

If a major bear market arrives just before retirement, or just after you begin drawing from savings, the damage is disproportionate. The math changes. The recovery timeline changes. The stakes change.

1

Before Retirement

Your capital is largest and your recovery window is shortest. A bad decline hurts more here than it did at 35.

2

Bear Market Hits

Drawdowns can collide with withdrawals or retirement timing, turning a temporary market event into a permanent planning problem.

3

Recovery Time

SPA3 Investor is designed to reduce exposure when trend rules break, then re-engage when new signals appear.

The last 10 years before retirement are not like the first 10. The rules change.
Fully exposedBuy-and-hold can work across decades, but Stage 2 and 3 investors do not always have decades to recover.
Too conservativeMoving to cash or bonds too early can reduce crash risk while inflation quietly erodes purchasing power.
Rules-based timingSPA3 Investor offers a third path: stay invested while trends hold, exit when system rules signal the trend is breaking.
What it is

A Rules-Based Investing System With Market Timing Built In

SPA3 Investor is a mechanical trend-following strategy for ASX and USA stocks and ETFs. It turns the core decisions into a visible process: enter, size, monitor, exit, wait.

Broad universeASX and USA stocks and ETFs.
Market timingExit rules activate when trends weaken.
Equal weightingCapital divided evenly across positions.
Cash capableCan sit out when no positions remain.
15 minutes/weekDesigned for a repeatable weekly rhythm.
Glass boxSignals and rule logic remain visible.

How SPA3 Investor works at a glance.

UniverseASX stocks, ASX ETFs, USA stocks, and USA ETFs.
Equal weightingCapital divided equally across positions, with no position bias.
ASX portfolio6-10 positions for practical diversification without complexity.
USA portfolio9-14 positions, run separately from the ASX portfolio.
Entry signalATR Breakout, with Below Action Price as an optional filter.
Exit signalsATR Trailing Stop plus seven swing chart pattern exits.
Time requiredAbout 15 minutes per week once the process is learnt.
Capital rangeDesigned for A$20,000 through to A$5,000,000+ portfolios.
Market timing

It Can Move to 100% Cash

When all positions have closed by the rules, the portfolio waits in cash until new entry signals appear.

Glass box

Every Rule Is Visible

Every entry rule, exit rule, and signal criterion is visible inside Beyond Charts before you execute.

Built for Stage 2 and 3

Not Retrofitted for Retirement

Built for investors who still need growth, but cannot ignore major drawdown risk.

Process first

Execution, Not Prediction

You cannot control the market. You can control the process you use to respond to it.

Sequence of Returns Risk

Most Investing Strategies Were Not Designed for Your Stage of Life.

A 40% decline at 35 is painful. The same decline at 60 can permanently alter the plan. SPA3 Investor does not predict bear markets; it responds when trend evidence breaks.

Path A: Fully Exposed Hope the bear market does not arrive at the wrong time.
Timing risk left open
Stays invested through the decline. Withdrawals can lock in losses. Recovery may take longer than your plan allows.
Path B: SPA3 Investor Stay invested while the trend is intact. Exit when rules fire.
Rules respond first
Participates while uptrends remain intact. Exits when the mechanical rules signal weakness. Sits in cash until new entry signals appear.
Stage 1 / 18-55Building wealth. Long time horizon. Volatility is manageable because time can do more of the recovery work.
Stage 2 / 56-65Pre-retirement. The highest-risk window for a badly timed bear market. SPA3 Investor is designed for this stage.
Stage 3 / 65+Retirement phase. Capital preservation is non-negotiable, but growth still matters because inflation does not retire.
"The greatest investing risk facing Stage 2 and 3 investors is that of Sequence of Returns Risk." - Gary Stone
SPA3 Investor - Simulations

SPA3 Investor Historical Simulations

The simulations below show how SPA3 Investor would have performed using historical market data across different time periods.

May 30, 2023 to June 1, 2026

SPA3 Investor USA stocks three-year historical simulation statistics

These simulations are provided for illustrative purposes only and are based on historical market data and the assumptions shown above. They are not actual trading results and do not predict future performance. Trading involves risk, including the risk of loss. Individual results will vary. General advice only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Is this for you?

Built for Stage 2 and Stage 3 Investors. Not for Everyone.

This Is For

  • Investors in the 10-15 years before retirement who want growth with rules-based capital protection.
  • Retirees who cannot afford a major bear market, but also cannot afford to lose quietly to inflation.
  • People who want a structured, repeatable process instead of a daily decision.
  • Investors who can give about 15 minutes per week to a predefined process.
  • SMSF or personal portfolio investors who want a transparent satellite growth strategy.

This Is Not For

  • Complete beginners with no brokerage or market experience.
  • Stage 1 investors under 55 seeking aggressive growth as their main objective.
  • Investors looking for passive, fully automated, zero-involvement investing.
  • Anyone who needs certainty before starting. Certainty is not available; process is.
  • Anyone unwilling to follow predefined rules when a trade feels uncomfortable.
New users should start with a small amount of capital. The training-wheel period is for acquiring skill, not maximising immediate profit.
Open-book track record

Real money. Real drawdowns. Measured against the index.

Real money, traded live on the ASX since 31 December 2015. Ten years and eight months, 378 closed trades, through two bear markets, a pandemic crash and a full interest-rate cycle.

Portfolio value
A$230,022
from A$80,000 on 31 Dec 2015
Net profit
A$150,022
187.53% return on capital
Annualised return
10.40%
10 years 8 months
Versus the index
+1.18 pp
All Ords Accum. 9.22%

Performance — SPA3 Investor — ASX

As at 2 Sep 2026

Returns

After brokerage, in A dollars
PeriodPortfolioAll Ords
1 month+0.18%+0.64%
3 months+6.83%+3.69%
6 months−13.31%−0.67%
1 year−6.81%+4.13%
3 years p.a.+5.34%+11.01%
5 years p.a.+0.74%+7.64%
10 years p.a.+10.23%+9.37%
Since inception p.a.+10.40%+9.22%
Inception date31 Dec 2015—
Starting capitalA$80,000—
⚑Derived, not transcribed. Derived from the daily equity-curve export, 31 Dec 2015 → 2 Sep 2026. Periods beyond one year are annualised as (end ÷ start)^(365 ÷ days) − 1, anchored to the last observation on or before each date; shorter periods are simple returns.
31 Dec 2015 → 2 Sep 2026
0% 100% 200%20182020202220242026 +156.57% +187.53%
✓2,785 real trading days. Plotted straight from the daily equity-curve export — portfolio and benchmark, 31 Dec 2015 to 2 Sep 2026.

Risk and return vs the index

Benchmark: All Ordinaries Accumulation ($XJOA)

Head to head

MeasurePortfolioAll Ords
Annualised return 10.40% 9.22%
Maximum drawdown −22.70% −35.93%
Max drawdown date 20 Jun 2022 23 Mar 2020
Current drawdown −13.33% −2.57%
Risk : Reward — lower is better 2.18 3.90
Longest time underwater 1,174 days —
Return on capital 187.53% 156.57%

The edge mechanics

Win rate
37.04%
140 winners of 378 closed
Payoff ratio
2.30
avg win +14.83% · avg loss −6.46%
Profit factor
1.27
A$398,993 gross profit ÷ A$313,483 gross loss
Avg profit / trade
+1.43%
A$226 per position
Average hold
73 days
winners 125 · losers 43
Time in market
88.72%
the rest sits in cash
Dividends received
A$46,680
on top of A$85,510 in trading profit
Positions taken
378
140 wins · 238 losses

The decade works. The last five years have not.

Over the full ten years and eight months the portfolio compounded at 10.40% a year against the index's 9.22%, and it did so with a worst-ever fall of 22.70% against the index's 35.93% in March 2020. That is the case for the system, and it still stands.

The recent record is a different story and we are not going to bury it. Over the past five years the portfolio returned 0.74% a year against the index's 7.64%; over three years, 5.34% against 11.01%; over the past twelve months it is down 6.81% while the index is up 4.13%. It sits 13.33% below its March 2026 peak and has spent as long as 1,174 consecutive days below a previous high.

Fewer than four trades in ten close profitable. The ones that work are held 2.9 times longer than the ones that don't — 125 days against 43 — and that gap is the entire mechanism. It does not produce a positive result in every window, and the last few years are the proof of that. What the rules control is how deep a drawdown is allowed to get and how it is exited, not when the market decides to reward the approach.

How the edge actually works

Every closed trade, counted

Where every trade landed

< −30%
1
−30 to −20
4
−20 to −10
34
−10 to 0
200
0 to +10
74
+10 to +20
31
+20 to +30
15
+30 to +50
12
+50 to +100
7
> +100%
0

All 378 closed trades, grouped by result. The tall bar is the point: most losses are small ones.

How long each kind was held

Winners held
125 d
Losers held
43 d

Winners are held 2.9× longer than losers. Nothing decides that but the rules.

Most trades lose a little. A few win a lot. The system's only job is to make sure the second group is held long enough to outweigh the first — which is why the win rate can sit below 50% and the portfolio still compounds.

The best trades and the worst trade

All of them are on the record
Largest win by dollars
+A$21,991
SBM · +72.64% over 218 days
Largest win by percentage
+97.39%
CSR · A$18,664 over 543 days
Largest single loss
−A$8,198
MIN · −33.13%, cut in 8 days

Closed trade record

378 closed positions · 17 Feb 2016 → 21 Aug 2026
InstrumentEntryExitHeldResult %Result $
ALL Aristocrat Leisure Limited 14 May 202621 Aug 2026 99 d +18.39% +A$4,252.78
CPU Computershare Limited 21 May 202619 Aug 2026 90 d +17.36% +A$3,951.20
JBH JB HI-FI Limited 5 May 202618 Aug 2026 105 d −7.52% −A$1,709.35
SGH SGH Limited 8 May 202614 Aug 2026 98 d +1.39% +A$323.91
ALQ ALS Limited 20 May 202627 Jul 2026 68 d −8.27% −A$1,895.75
WOR Worley Limited 31 Mar 202626 Jun 2026 87 d −3.50% −A$857.00
BHP BHP Group Limited 8 May 202625 Jun 2026 48 d +2.12% +A$489.18
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited 26 May 20263 Jun 2026 8 d −9.42% −A$2,092.56
REA REA Group Ltd 9 Mar 202625 May 2026 77 d −10.39% −A$2,175.75
SBM St Barbara Limited 13 Apr 202621 May 2026 38 d −22.68% −A$5,512.26
WBC Westpac Banking Corporation 15 Aug 202512 May 2026 270 d −0.68% −A$154.61
WOW Woolworths Group Limited 31 Oct 202511 May 2026 192 d +17.85% +A$4,688.83
Open positions are not published. Closed trades only, newest first. Results are price-only after brokerage; dividends are counted separately in portfolio net profit. Current holdings stay inside the platform, with customers.
These records are provided for transparency. Trading involves risk, losses and drawdowns. Objective rules can structure entries, exits, position sizing and risk responses; they cannot remove the possibility of loss. General advice only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. AFSL 250900. Individual results vary.
How it works

The System Does Not Predict. It Responds.

Prediction is a distraction. SPA3 Investor gives you a process that responds to what the market is actually doing.

1

Scan for signals

Run the pre-set scan in Beyond Charts or use alerts to check ASX and/or USA stocks and ETFs for new entry and exit signals.

2

Enter on ATR Breakout

When a confirmed entry signal appears, you open the position. The system identifies the stock. Your job is execution.

3

Allocate equally

Each new position receives an equal share of the capital allocated to that portfolio. ASX and USA portfolios stay separate.

4

Monitor open positions

ATR Trailing Stop and swing chart pattern indicators track the stock and signal when the trend is weakening.

5

Exit on signal

When an exit fires, the trade is closed according to the rules, without reopening the decision after the signal.

6

Sit in cash if required

If all positions close, the portfolio waits in 100% cash until new entry signals appear.

Gary Stone, founder of Share Wealth Systems
Gary StoneFounder / system R&D lead
Built by Gary Stone

In The Markets Since 1990. 8,000+ Documented R&D Hours.

Gary Stone has spent decades building rules-based systems. The edge is not knowing more than everyone else. It is having a process you can execute when others lose discipline.

Founder, Share Wealth Systems
AFSL 250900
active in the markets since 1990
8,000+ hours trading system R&D
Mentored by Mark Douglas
Creator of the SPA3 mechanical system family
Questions

Common Questions About SPA3 Investor

What markets does SPA3 Investor cover?

SPA3 Investor scans ASX stocks, ASX ETFs, USA stocks, and USA ETFs. Members can run an ASX-only portfolio, a USA-only portfolio, or both as separate portfolios. Research shows 6-10 positions for ASX and 9-14 positions for USA are optimal. The two markets should never be mixed in a single portfolio.

How is SPA3 Investor different from a managed fund?

Unlike a managed fund, SPA3 Investor puts you in control. You execute every trade based on mechanical rules, and you pay a flat subscription fee rather than a percentage of assets. Every rule is visible in Beyond Charts. There is no black box.

What is Sequence of Returns Risk?

It is the risk that a major bear market occurs just before or during retirement, permanently impairing your plan. SPA3 Investor uses market timing: systematic exits when trends break, to reduce exposure during high-risk periods.

How much time does it take each week?

Once learnt, approximately 15 minutes per week. You run the scan, check open positions for exit signals, check for new entry signals, and execute any required trades. The system does the analysis; your job is execution.

What if I have no prior trading experience?

SPA3 Investor can suit investors with limited market experience, but all new users are encouraged to begin with a small capital allocation during a training-wheel period. The objective at the start is to build skill and process, not maximise returns.

Your next step

Find Out If This Is the Right Fit.

Start With the Free Discovery Series

Gary's 7-part PBYP Series explains the full system, the process, and whether this suits your stage of life and capital. Watch the PBYP Series free — no commitment required.

Watch the PBYP Series